Will Scotland finally end the New Zealand curse?
Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks
Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT
Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.
Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.
A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."
Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.
A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued.
Modern Encounters
Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.
In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.
Team News
In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.
Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.
As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.
Key Absences
Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.
Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.
In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.
Squad Depth
They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.
Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.
Coaching Choices
Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.
The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.
Historical Context
Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.
Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.
By the Numbers
Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.
They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.
What Scotland Needs
During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.
The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.
Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.
Conclusion
Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? It's over.
But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.
Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.